Helping YOU build YOUR LEED Certified American Dream Home

Let us help you with your LEED certification needs. Cofer/Adams is the leading supplier of building materials that can help you attain LEED certification for your home or wood-framed commercial building in the Atlanta - Athens Georgia area. Extra points can be achieved by using Boise engineered lumber, cut by our computerized, optimized SawTec saw to minimize waste. Huber OSB products, such as Zip-Wall, Zip-Roof and Advantech sub-flooring are part of the Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI), do not use any urea-formaldehyde in the manufacturing process, and qualify based on manufacturing proximity in our area. Energy Star doors and windows help with points and energy savings. Masonite's "Safe and Sound" interior doors utilize DorCor™ made from wheat straw, and reduce sound transmission between rooms. Check with us for the sustainable green building products you need to gain points for your LEED certified building.

China's Lumber Demand Increases, OSB Prices Soften

One unintended consequence from China's demand for lumber could be less lumber available for U.S. homebuilding. China has surpassed Japan as the second largest user of North American lumber, after the U.S. Low-grade lumber that would be used for building houses in Atlanta is used largely in concrete forming when shipped to China, and also in furniture construction.
Lumber sales to China continue to see growth
B.C. continues to ramp up lumber shipments to China and has already exceeded its lumber shipments to the Asian economic giant over last year despite the difficult global economic conditions.
Typically, OSB prices start to fall at this time of year, unless there is tropical activity to stimulate buying. Mill files are growing shorter, and secondaries are trying to move off contract loads. Building material supply yards have thin inventories for this time of year. There is very little residential construction in Georgia.
Two Atlantic Ocean weather systems being watched
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two systems in the Atlantic Ocean this morning.

Lumber Prices Rise, Rain in Atlanta and Athens, Georgia Grind Other Building Materials Prices Lower

Increased housing starts in August combined with thin field inventories drove lumber prices up. Delivery to jobsites was hampered in Georgia, especially in the Athens - Atlanta area.
CME lumber ends higher on firmer cash
'A midweek upswing in sales of Western S-P-F sparked the market. Wholesalers took cautious long positions and distributors more confidently replenished,' Random Lengths said.
Mills continue to shut down or curtail production, but that seem to give little support to other building materials. OSB and plywood mills still have some order files, but are under pressure from a lack of buying at secondary levels. Upward pressure on panel prices could result from any development of tropical activity in the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm "Grace" forming?
After a week-long quiet spell, the tropics are showing signs of life as a large area of low pressure takes shape in the central Atlantic.

Georgia Lumber & Building Material Prices continue to soften

Lumber and building material prices seem to be slowly grinding lower again. Lumber & building material supply businesses in Georgia continue to suffer as a result of housing market fundamentals:
James Hardie: US Housing Market Hasn't Bottomed, But Close
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--James Hardie Industries NV (JHX) Chief Executive Louis Gries said Monday he expects positive year-on-year housing starts data in the U.S. between March and May 2010.
DJ CME Lumber Review: September Slips But Most Others Gain
Trading Markets (press release)
A broker said better-than-expected housing starts in Canada during August reported early in the day might have been mildly supportive for lumber futures.
-There seems to be little support for OSB prices, other than 2-3 week order files at the mills. With the mill curtailments and shutdowns in effect, development of any tropical activity could cause a further surge in prices.

Lumber Rises, Weyerhaeuser Reopens Mill, OSB Strong, EWP Panel Rebate

CME lumber end mostly up on short covering
(Reuters) - Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures closed mostly higher on Thursday amid light short covering with only limitless September down ahead of its expiration next week.
Mill reopens after August shutdown
As a result of these challenging market conditions, the Philadelphia facility underwent this extended downtime to balance supply with customer demand...
OSB manufacturers now pushing through second price increase
First Time Use Builder Rebate – AdvanTech® & ZIP System™ Products Build Green with Huber Engineered Wood Products and get money back as well!

US Lumber and Log Exports Up, 2008 Home Sales Report for Atlanta

West Coast's log, lumber exports increase in second quarter of 2009
Log exports for the second quarter of 2009 from Oregon and Washington totaled 189.5 million board feet, up 38.6 percent from the first quarter volume of 136.7 million board feet.
A total of 239.5 million board feet of softwood logs and 80.2 million board feet of softwood lumber was exported from Washington, Oregon, northern California, and Alaska in April, May, and June of this year, according to the U.S. Forest Service's Pacific Northwest Research Station.
Atlanta Home Sales Report
Home sales overview by county for Atlanta 2007-2008
Gwinnett 2008 10,467 units -31.30% from 2007.

July New Residential Construction Commentary

The above graph is a visual representation of the Seasonally Adjusted New Residential Construction & Sales data through July 2009. The lines represent Total Permits and Starts, Single Family Permits and Starts, Single Family Units Sold, Total Under Construction and Single Family Under Construction. The trend line represents a 50 year regression analysis of Single Family Starts. It is worth noting that there have been several construction downturns since 1959, and that we have surpassed levels that have triggered recovery in all of the past housing downturns.




Looking at Single Family Starts and Permits, we see that the inflection point occurred somewhere between January and March of 2009. We did not see a significant increase in the Atlanta – Athens area until later in the spring. Lumber and Panel prices have risen above the lows that were at or below sustainable levels, although lumber, plywood, and OSB mills continue to curtail or shut down completely.

The quantity of Single Family Homes for Sale is the lowest it has been since April, 1993.
“The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2009 was $210,100; the average sales price was $269,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 271,000. This represents a supply of 7.5 months at the current sales rate.” Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN JULY 2009.
As the supply of new homes continues to drop, new homes will need to be built to replenish the supply. This will require new jobs to be added in the construction industry, which should help lower unemployment, and contribute to a new cycle of prosperity in our U.S. economy.

Capacity for single family residential construction has fallen as builders, building material product suppliers, and lumber and panel mills downsized or shutdown completely. This is good news for any lumber mill, lumber yard, building material supply, and builder left standing in the market.

Reid Adams
http://www.coferadams.com/
Cofer Adams Building Center, Inc. is a full service building material supply of structural and related building products for residential new construction in the Atlanta – Athens Georgia area. We provide prefabricated components, including floor trusses, roof trusses, and engineered wood; wood and vinyl windows; and pre-hung interior and exterior doors, as well as assemble and distributes interior and exterior door units. We also offer lumber and wood sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products used in on-site house and commercial framing; millwork products, which consist of interior trim, exterior trim, columns, and posts; and other building products that include gypsum, roofing, and insulation.

Lumber Prices Mixed, Homebuilder names partner-winners

DJ CME Lumber Review: Position Rolling Leaves Prices Mixed
Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures settled mixed Friday in moderate to heavy trading that centered mostly on moving trade positions out of September and into other months.
The September contract settled up $1.30 per 1,000 board feet at $174.10, while November was down $5.50 at $177.50 for a 3.01% loss in value. January was off $4.00, or 1.98%, at $198.00.

David Weekley names partner-winners
The winners are Boise Engineered Wood Products, Dow Chemical, DuPont Building Innovations, Eaton Corp., GAF-Elk, James Hardie, Lennox Industries, Office Depot, MASCO Builder Cabinet Group, Seacoast Supply and Schneider Electric.
-David Weekley builds new homes in the Atlanta - Athens, Georgia area.

www.coferadams.com Cofer Adams Building Center, Inc. is a full service building material supply of structural and related building products for residential new construction in the Atlanta – Athens Georgia area. We provide prefabricated components, including floor trusses, roof trusses, and engineered wood; wood and vinyl windows; and pre-hung interior and exterior doors, as well as assemble and distributes interior and exterior door units. We also offer lumber and wood sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products used in on-site house and commercial framing; millwork products, which consist of interior trim, exterior trim, columns, and posts; and other building products that include gypsum, roofing, and insulation.

5 Major Risks to Green Building Market Growth

The growth of the green building market has been widely celebrated recently, spurred largely by government policies and rising recognition that such structures are more economical to operate. The forces behind the industry are so strong now that research firm McGraw-Hill Construction predicts green buildings will represent 20-25 percent of new commercial and institutional construction starts by 2013, from about 10-12 percent today.

But while the benefits of designing buildings to use energy, water and other natural resources more efficiently are clear, that doesn’t mean the industry’s growth is free from risk. A number of hurdles will need to be overcome in the coming years that, if not corrected, could significantly slow the market.

In a nutshell, the five major risks are:
1. Financial
2. Legal
3. Green-washed Building Materials
4. Driving Energy Retrofits
5. Regulatory Risk

Here in Georgia, construction costs are a primary driver of affordability. When the costs of lumber, plywood, OSB, engineered wood, doors, windows and roofing increase, the ability to finance and sell a home decrease. For example, while the use of composite wood decking makes sense in the long run, most people opt for less expensive treated lumber when building outdoor structures. -Reid Adams www.coferadams.com

October New Residential Construction Commentary

The above graph is a visual representation of the Seasonally Adjusted New Residential Construction & Sales data through October 2008. The lines represent Total Permits and Starts, Single Family Permits and Starts, Single Family Units Sold, Total Under Construction and Single Family Under Construction. It is worth noting that there have been several construction downturns since 1959, and that we are at levels that have triggered recovery in all of the past housing downturns.

Looking at Starts only, we see that Total Starts are the lowest they have been before beginning recovery, and Single Family starts are within a few thousand units of the lowest they have been before beginning to recover. Based on the permits we have see in the Atlanta area, November may give us new lows for all aspects of residential construction. Lumber and Panel prices are at or below sustainable levels, with many lumber items at multi-decade lows.

There are several unknowns at this point. Although the quantity of Single Family Homes for Sale is the lowest it has been since May, 2004, there is a 9.1 month supply available. Our economy is probably in a recession, and people don't tend to think about buying a home during a recession.

Capacity for single family residential construction continues to fall as builders, building material product suppliers, and lumber and panel mills continue to downsize or shutdown completely.

U. S. Housing Starts

The U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released the new residential construction statistics for August 2008 on September 17. 2008. Total starts declined to
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 895,000; which is 6.2 percent below the July estimate of 954,000 and is 33.1 percent below the revised August 2007 rate of 1,337,000. Single family starts declined to 630,000. This represents a 1.9 percent decrease from the July figure of 642,000; and a 34.9% decrease from August 2007.

Historically, starts have decreased to a seasonally adjusted range between 904,000 and 791,000 before rebounds have occured. The starts figure from August puts us within that channel. While most consider a decline in starts and permits to be a negative leading indicator, a slightly longer term perspective might tell us that construction in the housing market is approaching a point that is unsustainable, given normal increases in population and attrition of housing units overall. In other words, there are not enough houses being built to satisfy long term demand.

Both total starts and single family starts (SF) have decreased to the range that has been unsustainable in the past. This could mean that the housing market is close to recovering. A housing recovery should help improve the entire U. S. economy.

A large amount of capacity for single family residential construction has been removed. This includes lumber and panel mills which have been temporarily or permantly closed, building material product suppliers that have reduced locations and personnel, and builders that have downsized or ceased to exist. A small increase in demand for new homes could overwhelm the existing supply chain.

-Reid Adams
Cofer/Adams Building Center, Inc.