A "V" Shaped Housing Recovery Begins to Take Shape

With March data from the Census Bureau' s New Residential Housing Index and New Home Sales, we can begin to see the formation of a "V" shaped recovery in the housing market. Our economy is slowly building strength and momentum, and employment will begin to increase. This will lead to increased housing demand from new household formation. As "pent up demand" from young people living with their parents, and divorced couples living together lead to new household formation, "shadow inventory" should be reduced or eliminated. Many of the houses counted in "new homes for sale" are now bank owned, and many are in disrepair or are uninhabitable. Additionally, most of the true bargains are gone, and the prices of homes are going up. People tend to put off purchases as prices fall, and tend to accelerate purchases as prices rise. All of these factors together should combine to give real underlying strength to the housing recovery.

October 2009 Housing Permits and Starts

News from the U.S. Census Bureau that October new residential construction fell to a six month low put intense pressure on CME lumber futures. Near term January lumber futures closed down $9/m and March fell $8/m. Inventory is slim at all levels of the supply chain, and demand for the available building materials is sparse. In our area, Georgia has lost about 310,000 jobs since September 2007, and projects to lose a total of 135,900 jobs this year and 35,000 next year. Unemployment in Georgia has reached 10.2%. Building permits in the Atlanta - Athens area are off about 97% from 2005. According to Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, permits will drop about 70% this year from 2008. Mortgage applications fell last week, with the index of home purchase applications sinking over 4%to the lowest level since November of 1997.

Housing and the September 2009 New Residential Construction Report

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, single family housing permits indicate that future construction activity will fall 28% nationally as compared to September 2008. The data also predicts a huge 74% drop since construction peaked in January 2006. Economists generally agree that annual demand for new housing units is somewhere around 1.8 million. Some economists say that 2 million units are required annually, while others think that the actual demand 1.5 million is. Here's part of how they come up with these numbers. The primary drivers of housing unit demand are new household formation and housing unit destruction. We regularly hear that new households, on average, form at a rate of 850,000 per year. Housing destruction is composed primarily of units destroyed by fire, flood, natural disaster and urban renewal, and is generally considered to be around 750,000 units per year. Fires alone account for almost 450,000 homes destroyed annually. Just watch the news any evening in Atlanta, and you are likely to see or hear about apartment or house fires. Adding just these two demand measures yields a 1,600,000 annual unit demand.



As the U.S. population has continues to rise, just as it has for the last 50 years, new housholds should be forming. For the last three years, new households have not been forming at a normal rate. Single people are moving in with each other, young adults are returning to live with their parents, and immigrants are entering the country at a much slower rate. Housing units, however, continue to be destroyed on a ongoing basis. This year alone, more housing units were destroyed by the floods in the Atlanta Metro Area this year than were permitted through September. Subtract the additional units destroyed by fires (usually the largest part of the destroyed number) and urban renewal, and Atlanta should be with a shortage in housing units. Just as over the last 50 years housing has been cyclical with booms and busts occuring irregularly, we may be setting up for another housing boom, when the next generation begins to form households and destroyed units are replaced.